| Partenaires |
| Contenu |
| Livrables |
Partenaires:
IPSL; CNRM-GAME/CERFACS; EDF; ARIA.
Contenu:
In this case, we will consider basic research in order to respond to the industrial request about the occurrence of cold waves and their impact on energy sector. Nowadays, the number of studies related to this question is weak and complementary aspects have to be investigated. We will make analysis in relation to the vulnerability criteria defined by the industrial partners in INVULNERABLE (duration, cumulative anomaly and geographical expansion). In a first phase, the present study will more precisely define the vulnerability thresholds by characterizing the cold waves of the 1970-2007 period and their impact on energy supply/consumption. This study could be extended to the more recent 2007-2010 period including the four cold waves of the 2009-2010 winter. An attempt to assess vulnerability will be performed using data from Public French energy Agencies and/or associated partner archives.
The second phase of this study will consist in analysing cold wave evolutions in observations and in future climatic projections. This can be done within the framework of Extreme Value Theory for which spatial and temporal dependence properties have been developed at LSCE and at EDF/R&D (Naveau et al, 2005; Yiou et al., 2008). In particular, we will investigate the evolution of observed extreme temperatures and assess the factors driving such changes. We will also investigate cold spells, from high resolution data.
For model data analysis, a preliminary step which consists in specifying the climatic models capacity to represent these cold waves is essential. Models will be validated from observations/models comparisons on criteria of duration, intensity, spatial distribution and frequency (global and regional models from ENSEMBLES project and DRIAS database). Understanding the exact role of atmospheric circulation on the occurrence of cold waves will probably be necessary for understanding the strengths and the weaknesses of the models. The analysis of the future cold waves evolution will be realized from raw model output, model data corrected by a correcting method (Déqué, 2007). A major part of this study will be devoted to the uncertainties analysis and to their representation. Uncertainties will be evaluated with a multi-model/multi-scenario from the CMIP4 and their downscaled products from the ENSEMBLES, DRIAS projects, and possibly CORDEX project (depending on its advancement). These analyses will be performed with a strong link with task 3.1.
Livrables :
D2.1.1: statistical analysis of the observed cold waves (EDF/ESCRIME)
D2.1.2: Future projection of vulnerable cold waves. Uncertainties assessment (ESCRIME).
