| Partenaires |
| Contenu |
| Livrables |
Partenaires:
CLIMPACT; CERFACS; CNRM-GAME; IPSL. GDF-Suez
Contenu:
Wind farms as well as hydroelectric dams are long term investments with return on investment periods ranging from 10 to 30 years and infrastructure life of 20 to 100 years. The profitability of such infrastructures can be affected by variability of electricity production on both short and long term periods. Thus risk originating from both decadal variability and climate change should be estimated for better decision making for investors and institutional planners.
Based on a wind farm implementation scenario (Balea, 2003) and the present hydroelectric production zones, CLIMPACT has developed methodology and downscaling technique (Michelangeli et al 2009) to asses the impact of climate change on renewable production from wind (CLIMPACT, 2006 and 2010) and precipitation sources from IPCC simulations and SRES scenarios (CLIMPACT, 2010).
The goal of the present case study is to update the analysis with AR4, AR5, decadal and, eventually, high resolution simulations in a common study frame work in order to assess differences and their impact in terms of adaptation strategies. It will also provide complete analyses of the different sources of uncertainties by considering in collaboration with task 3 ensemble simulations and the capability of climate models to represent winds and the reasons of possible mismatches with observations.
En parallèle à l’étude des incertitudes, GDF SUEZ étudiera la possibilité de mettre à disposition de CLIMPACT un jeu de données mesurées au niveau d’un actif de production (type ferme éolienne), afin de projeter l’étude sur un cas concret ; si cette possibilité se concrétise, le jeu de données sera soumis à confidentialité entre GDF SUEZ et CLIMPACT.
Livrables:
D2.4.1: Analysis of impact of climate change on wind and hydro energy production over France for 2050 and 2100, based on climate projection scenarios form AR4 and AR5 and for 2015/2030 based on decadal prediction (CLIMPACT / GDF-Suez).
