| Partenaires |
| Contenu |
| Livrables |
Partenaires:
Veolia Eau ; CERFACS ; CNRM-GAME ; IDDRI ; IPSL ; CDC Climat
Expertise:
Ambassade de l’Eau (Jeanette Pretot ; présidente et fondatrice); DG EPAMARNE/EPAFRANCE (Pascal Berteaud, Directeur de l’Eau au Ministère de l’Environnement (2002 – 2008)).
Contenu:
The objective of this task is to study how Adaptation to climate change objective may have an impact on the market of the desalination industry. The scope of the study is worldwide, but the Mediterranean basin may be used as a reference area where a more detailed study may prove relevant.
This study will aim at gaining a better understanding of :
- the possible integration of desalination technologies in the adaptation strategy of societies vulnerable to the impact of climate change on water resources ;
- the vulnerability of desalination utilities to the impact of climate change on the conditions of operation.
These questions will be studied through an interdisciplinary approach, combining marketing, technical and financial aspects.
The implementation of a desalination plant can be analysed in four steps: 1) Identification of a need for freshwater, 2) formulation of a demand for a freshwater production plant, 3) choice of a technical solution and 4) construction and operation of the plant. Two types of projects may be investigated: building of new desalination plants and evolution of existing plants.
Various factors need to be considered, including but not limited to : physical factors (present and future freshwater resources, topographic / geographic constraints, climate conditions, etc.); socio-demographic factors (demography, water demand, water usages, etc.); technical factors (energy demand, seawater composition constraints, vulnerability to meteorological extremes, etc.); public policies factors (access to water, energy policies, biodiversity protection, urbanism, etc.); financial and marketing factors (investment and operation cost, available sources of financing and subsidies, externalities assessment, etc.).
The task will aim at studying how climate change may impact these factors, and as a result how the vulnerability issue can be formulated and how the objective of adaptation to climate changes should be integrated in a project of desalination plant. The interdisciplinary approach will be a determinant characteristic of the global framework of this task, within which the following questions will be addressed:
- What are the project stakeholder sensitivity / awareness to climate change? (Task 1.3)
- What impacts of climate change (sea level rise, temperature of water, wind / sun / clouds, etc) will affect desalination plant project (localisation, design and construction, operation)?
- How should climate projections be taken into account at the different stages of a project?
- What are the criteria motivating a switch from classical freshwater production technology to desalination one?
- How do adaptation strategies apply to desalination projects (no regret, reversibility, shorter term of investment, security margins…)?
- To what extent is it possible to combine both adaptation and mitigation objectives in a desalination plant project (inclusion of renewable energies) and what are the consequences for financing mechanisms (Clean Development Mechanisms)?
The project will mainly investigate the link with and the use of climate information in the decision process along 3 phases:
- The first phase aims at identifying indicators both useful to the analysis of climate change impact on a desalination plant project, and compatible with climate projection models. It will be done from a collaborative work between climatologists and industrials.
- In a second phase, specific vulnerability indicators will be defined from the indicators provided in WP3, related impact studies and exploratory analyses of climate data.
- The third phase consists in doing indicator projections for three time horizon (2000, 2050 and 2100). Multi-models and multi-scenarios will be used in order to assess the uncertainties of this detailed analysis.
Livrables:
D2.3.1: Present and forecast cross-mapping of freshwater resources and renewable energies, based on climate projection. (If relevant/feasible, a mapping of corresponding most adapted desalination technology may be added – confidential results).
D2.3.2: Synthesis of opportunities and difficulties for the integration of climate change impacts analysis at the different stage of a desalination plant project.
D2.3.3: Synthesis of the use of climate finance (i.e. international financing mechanisms for adaptation and mitigation projects) in the financial engineering of desalination plant projects. Analyze of the possibilities to internalize economic (external) benefits related to adaptation and mitigation and to render the project financially viable by capturing the carbon rent and establishing risk sharing mechanisms.
Milestone: Organization of a workshop on “Desalination and Adaptation to climate change” with major stakeholders. Depending on the results of the project, the workshop could be suggested as a side-event of the World Water Forum – Marseille 2012.
